Arithmetic already makes Vettel champion
With five races left on the 2013 Formula One calendar, it seems almost certain that Sebastian Vettel will once again take the drivers’ title.
In his dominant Red Bull RB9 the German has secured victories in the last four events, leaving him with 272 points. That’s 77 ahead of nearest rival Fernando Alonso’s tally of 195, while third-placed Kimi Raikkonen is on 167 and Lewis Hamilton has 161.
+Front.jpg "Red Bull RB9 2013 (Vettel) Front")
Given the way that points are awarded in Formula One (25 for 1st, 18 for 2nd, 15 for 3rd, 12 for 4th, 10 for 5th, 8 for 6th, 6 for 7th, 4 for 8th, 2 for 9th and 1 for 10th place), theoretically any of those four drivers could end up as champion.
It’s highly unlikely for three of them, though.
If Hamilton won every remaining round, he’d end up with 286 points. Yet Vettel would only need to achieve a couple of sixth places to finish the season on 288 and so beat his Mercedes opponent.
Similarly, if Raikkonen took five victories, the Lotus driver would hold 292 points. Vettel could better that total simply by finishing seventh on four occasions.
Turning to Alonso, the Spaniard has the best chance (albeit an extremely slim one) of challenging Red Bull. Even in the seemingly impossible event of Vettel scoring nothing between now and the end of the year, Alonso would still have to come third in four races and second in the other to defeat him by one point.
Alternatively, if Alonso won the next five races, he’d have 320 points. However, Vettel would just have to finish fifth in every round in order to snatch the title by two points.
Of course, all of those scenarios are improbable. Indeed, Vettel could clinch the championship at this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix if he wins at Suzuka and Alonso fails to score.
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2014 Formula One calendar
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In his dominant Red Bull RB9 the German has secured victories in the last four events, leaving him with 272 points. That’s 77 ahead of nearest rival Fernando Alonso’s tally of 195, while third-placed Kimi Raikkonen is on 167 and Lewis Hamilton has 161.
+Front.jpg "Red Bull RB9 2013 (Vettel) Front")
Given the way that points are awarded in Formula One (25 for 1st, 18 for 2nd, 15 for 3rd, 12 for 4th, 10 for 5th, 8 for 6th, 6 for 7th, 4 for 8th, 2 for 9th and 1 for 10th place), theoretically any of those four drivers could end up as champion.
It’s highly unlikely for three of them, though.
If Hamilton won every remaining round, he’d end up with 286 points. Yet Vettel would only need to achieve a couple of sixth places to finish the season on 288 and so beat his Mercedes opponent.
Similarly, if Raikkonen took five victories, the Lotus driver would hold 292 points. Vettel could better that total simply by finishing seventh on four occasions.
Turning to Alonso, the Spaniard has the best chance (albeit an extremely slim one) of challenging Red Bull. Even in the seemingly impossible event of Vettel scoring nothing between now and the end of the year, Alonso would still have to come third in four races and second in the other to defeat him by one point.
Alternatively, if Alonso won the next five races, he’d have 320 points. However, Vettel would just have to finish fifth in every round in order to snatch the title by two points.
Of course, all of those scenarios are improbable. Indeed, Vettel could clinch the championship at this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix if he wins at Suzuka and Alonso fails to score.
Related posts:
2014 Formula One calendar
Formula One rules tweaked for 2014
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